When a home is far bigger and newer than everything around it, the comparable sales that normally set its price do not exist — and the seller and their eventual buyer end up setting the market themselves. This Mayport house is 3 bed, 4 bath, 2,685 sq ft, built in 2008, on a block where the other homes run from 961 to 1,759 sq ft and were mostly built in the 1940s or after 2023. It asked $599,000 for 193 days and expired unsold. The MLS returned only two listings for the area, and an automated county-and-MLS product returned sales from across the inlet, which are not comparable to this block at all. Built by hand from the property appraiser roll, the two genuinely comparable sales came in at $426,000 and $445,000 — both older and smaller than the subject. The realistic retail plan is to list at $500,000 and work down, expecting a sale between $450,000 and $500,000, with $400,000 the price it sells at for certain. The as-is cash offer against that was $325,000. The advice given was to list it rather than take the cash.

Real Offers · Mayport, Jacksonville

There Are No Comps. You and Your Buyer Make the Market.

Name: There Are No Comps. You and Your Buyer Make the Market. — The offer, and why the comps would not settle it
Uploaded: 2026-09-28
Duration: 4 min 36 s
Channel: Bryce Spraggins
Description: Three attempts at finding comparable sales, one of which returned the wrong side of an inlet. What the property appraiser roll actually showed, why being the biggest house on the block makes pricing harder, and the cash offer that came with advice to list instead.

By Bryce Spraggins · September 28, 2026

3 bed, 4 bath, 2,685 sq ft · built 2008 · asked $599,000 and expired after 193 days · the block around it runs 961 to 1,759 sq ft

A Mayport house asked $599,000 for 193 days and never sold. Why almost no comparable sales exist for it, what it will actually bring at retail, and the $325,000 cash offer that came with advice to list it instead.

The address and the homeowner's name are never shown. Everything else — the condition, the comps, and the number — is exactly what happened.

The offer, and why the comps would not settle it

September 28, 2026

Three attempts at finding comparable sales, one of which returned the wrong side of an inlet. What the property appraiser roll actually showed, why being the biggest house on the block makes pricing harder, and the cash offer that came with advice to list instead.

How This Number Was Built

This was one of the harder valuations to call in a while, and the reason is worth understanding if you own a house that does not look like its neighbors.

The property is a 2,685 sq ft home built in 2008 — 3 bedrooms, 4 baths — in Mayport. It was listed at $599,000, sat on the market for 193 days, and came off unsold. The owners had already stepped the price back more than once on the way.

The first problem was that the comparable sales barely exist. Pulling the immediate area out of the MLS returned two listings. Total. A second product, the kind that blends county records with MLS data to catch sales that never hit the market, returned a set that did not even contain those two — and the sales it did return were across the inlet. Geographically close, economically unrelated. That is not a comparable sale, it is a different market with water in between.

So the read was built by hand: the property appraiser roll, every sale in 2025 and 2026, narrowed to the specific pocket the house actually sits in. Most of what came back was well below the subject. Two sales were genuinely useful, at $426,000 and $445,000 — and both are older and less impressive than this house.

The second problem is that the house is overbuilt for its block. The homes around it run from about 961 to 1,759 sq ft. This one is 2,685. Being the nicest house on the street is a pleasant thing to own and a difficult thing to price, because there is no record of anyone in that neighborhood paying what this house is worth — nobody has had the chance. The seller and whoever finally buys it will set that number between them.

That is the part that changes a cash offer. When a house sits in the middle of a deep pile of recent sales, a cash home buyer can be confident about the resale and price accordingly. When the resale number has to be invented rather than observed, the margin has to widen to cover being wrong. It is not a comment on the house. It is a comment on how much the data can prove.

The history says the same thing. These owners bought it in 2011. That sale started at $449,000 in April 2010, stepped down to $448,000, then $445,000, then $390,000, and finally closed at $305,000 in October 2011 — eighteen months and four price cuts below where it began. The same house, the same block, the same problem.

The retail plan. Priced today, it should start at $500,000 and work down. A sale between $450,000 and $500,000 is the realistic expectation, with $450,000 the honest middle. At $400,000 it sells — that is the number there is no doubt about.

The cash offer was $325,000, built off the $400,000 certainty rather than the $500,000 hope, with costs of sale, holding, financing and margin coming out of the difference. It closes on whatever date the sellers choose, with no commission, no repairs, no showings and no closing costs on their side.

And the recommendation was to turn it down — relist it, get it properly photographed, start at $500,000 and let it walk down to $400,000, because the spread between that and the cash number is worth the wait for a seller who can wait. The cash offer stands either way.

Asked $599,000 and sat 193 days before the listing expired.
The MLS held two listings for the whole area. An automated comp tool returned sales from across the inlet, which are not comparable.
The valuation had to be rebuilt by hand off the property appraiser roll.
The two genuinely useful comps sold at $426,000 and $445,000, and both are older and smaller.
At 2,685 sq ft it is far larger than a block that runs 961 to 1,759 sq ft.
The same house listed at $449,000 in 2010 and sold for $305,000 in 2011.
Retail plan: start at $500,000, expect $450,000 to $500,000, and $400,000 sells for certain.
The cash offer was $325,000 — and the advice was to list it instead.

The Actual Comps

These are the real charts this offer was priced from — not a re-creation.

Three ways to sell the same house compared side by side, with the net to the seller under each — The three routes out, side by side, ordered by how certain each number is rather than how big it is. **Listing at $500,000 nets about $442,500** but everything has to go right. **Working down to $450,000 nets about $398,250** and is the honest expectation. **The cash offer is $325,000**, which is the lowest number and the only guaranteed one. Costs of sale run 11.5 percent — listing side, buyer’s agent, a budgeted buyer closing cost credit and the seller’s own closing costs. Every column is before the mortgage payoff. (Click to enlarge.)

The cash offer broken down, alongside the market history of the property — The cash offer on its own, and the record it is priced against. **$400,000 is the resale figure there is no doubt about**; costs of sale, holding, financing and margin come out of the gap to reach **$325,000**. Beside it is what the market has already said: **193 days at $599,000**, two real comps at $426,000 and $445,000, the closest sale of all at $200,000 — and the same house listing at **$449,000 in 2010** before selling for **$305,000 in 2011**. (Click to enlarge.)

Seller net sheet at three listing prices, showing what the seller keeps at each — What a listing actually pays, carried down to the net. **$500,000 nets $442,500**, **$450,000 nets $398,250**, **$400,000 nets $354,000**. The **3 percent buyer closing cost credit is budgeted, not promised** — the second figure on each card is what the seller keeps if it gets negotiated away, and every dollar saved goes back to them. No mortgage payoff is included in any column. (Click to enlarge.)

Common Questions

What happens when there are no comparable sales for a house?

An appraiser or agent normally prices a home by finding recent sales of similar properties nearby and adjusting for the differences. When those sales do not exist — because the home is much larger, much newer, or otherwise unlike everything around it — there is nothing to adjust from. The practical result is that the price gets discovered rather than calculated: the seller picks a number, the market responds or does not, and the eventual sale becomes the comparable sale that did not previously exist. It also makes financing harder, because a lender’s appraiser faces the same empty cupboard the agent did.

Is it bad to own the biggest or nicest house on the street?

It is excellent to live in and difficult to sell. The surrounding homes act as a ceiling on what buyers believe the location is worth, so an overbuilt home rarely captures the full value of what was spent on it. That is not a reason to avoid improving a property you intend to keep. It is a reason to expect a longer marketing time and a wider range of offers when you sell, and to be careful about renovating well past what the neighborhood supports if a sale is on the horizon.

Why do automated comparable-sale tools sometimes get it badly wrong?

Because most of them measure distance rather than comparability. A tool drawing a radius around a property treats everything inside that circle as a candidate, which works in a uniform subdivision and fails wherever the map has a boundary the algorithm cannot see — a river, an inlet, a highway, a rail line, a base perimeter. On this property the automated set returned homes across an inlet from the subject and omitted two sales on the correct side that the MLS already held. The reliable check is simple: if an automated comp set is missing a sale you already know about, throw the whole set out. It is not a gap in the data, it is evidence the geography is wrong.

Why is a cash offer lower on a house that is hard to compare?

Because the cash offer is built backwards from the resale price, and the resale price is the part that is uncertain. A cash home buyer takes the number the property will sell for with confidence, then subtracts costs of sale, holding and financing costs and a margin. Where recent sales are plentiful, the resale figure is well supported and the margin can be thin. Where the resale figure has to be estimated rather than observed, that margin has to absorb the risk of being wrong about it. On this property the offer was based on $400,000 — the price there was no doubt about — rather than the $500,000 the listing might reach.

Should I take a cash offer or relist a house that failed to sell?

It comes down to what the gap is worth against how long you can wait. On this property the cash offer was $325,000 with no commission, no repairs, no showings and a closing date of the seller’s choosing, against a realistic retail expectation of $450,000 to $500,000 that takes months and carries no guarantee. A seller who can wait, tolerate showings and absorb the carrying costs is usually better off relisting — properly re-photographed and priced to move rather than repeating the price that already failed. A seller who needs a date is buying certainty, and that is what the difference pays for.

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